Solar variation ruled out in global warming

[HATEFACE]

Hey! I had a ford F1fiddy, unique eh?! - for about 10 years. Great reliable truck.

[HATEFACE]

If we've already crossed the point of no return on that one, well, it's been nice knowing you all. I hope your rider mowers were worth it.

That depends on what brand it is.

[paazin]

That's no problem. We just need to utilize the albedo effect to limit insolation.

[HATEFACE]

That's no problem. We just need to utilize the albedo effect to limit insolation.

I've had it up to here with your left wing sorcery! Back satan!

[Zakharra]

And Zak... broken record mode. Do some research. Weather and climate are totally different animals.

Actually any time you say something assume I have replied with "do some research", until such time as you actually research something before talking. Note that listening to Rush Limbaugh does not count as research.

It is the same. Many of the same parameters of humidity, heat, sun radiation and weather patterns and such are used in the predictions of the future of global warming, or climate change, as it is becomming to be called now. Which can now account for unusual weather of all sorts, like unusually cold weather in places it is normally warm to hot at this time. Weather and climate change are linked, not seperated.

[Zakharra]

[Yet we are not able to accurately predict the weather for more than a few days.

I can't predict how you are going to drive your car, or where any particular accident is going to occur, but I can say with statistical certainty that at least 30,000 people are going to die this year from auto collisions.

You don't understand the science well enough to be able to test its validity. Daily accurate weather predictions are unnecessary to be able to determine long term trends.

I would not buy a fuel efficient car. 1; I cannot afford the $2-3000 higher price, 2; None are big enough for what I have to use it for, 3; There are none that I would trust unless it's made by Subaru.

You would if it cost you an extra $5000.00 in taxes *not* to, which is precisely what it's going to take. And yes, stubborn stupid people are *precisely* why we have government regulations in the first place.

That's a risk you take when you get into a car or truck. A voluntary risk. I drive nearly every day of the year and work for 6 out of 7 days every week. My job requires that I drive (I am a mail carrier), so I have to havce a vehical that meets certain standards to keep my job. Recently that was increased to make it fairly expensive to get a vehical. I have to have a vehical no older than 5 years when I buy it and I cannot use it for my work if it becomes older than 9 years. That puts the price for a vehical in a fairly high price range for my salery.

I mentioned weather predictions because supposedly the global warming predictions are accurate, but as far as I know, they have a wide range of temperature increases and such, from a few degrees (1-2 degrees) to as much as 10 degrees in the next century. Yet we are supposed to base current policy on the chance that they could be accurate.

You would if it cost you an extra $5000.00 in taxes *not* to, which is precisely what it's going to take. And yes, stubborn stupid people are *precisely* why we have government regulations in the first place.

That would be double taxation, since I would be paying more in gasoline anyways. I find it ironic that the liberal/socialist answer is almost always a tax on something. Always, 'For your own good', of course. If liberals are about freedom, why are they so determined to restrict it with people who do not agree with them?

[Charlie]

On a note, Ford products are pieces of garbage compared to a Toyota, who make the Prius. I'll never buy another Ford again after my Focus experience. Even if I buy another 4 wheeled gas-powered car (which I plan not to) It'll be a Saturn, Toyota, or a Hyunda: They Last Forever.

Coyotes breed like rats, or rabbits, but bigger, and they don't taste as good. I remember in new mexico, there was always a contest to see who could collect the most pelts. It still didn't really put a dent in their population.

[Lusipher]

I actually helped design the lighting for the Prius. Its what I do for a living. Toyota cars are superior in quality to American cars nowdays its not even funny. You should see the quality checks we go through in a start up for new design or model year.

[Grand Fromage]

What I'm thinking of more is the release of carbon and methane in the permafrost and icecaps

Yeah, that's the self-sustaining feedback loop dealio. It's sort of unclear when or if that would happen, but it would definitely be bad news. There's a lot of research going into ways to rapidly pull CO2 out of the atmosphere--it'd also be useful for terraforming other planets. It's all still highly experimental.

It is the same.

No, it's not. Let me try to explain it using a D&D analogy, I presume you're probably better versed in that.

Say we're going to roll a 1d6 five hundred times. Over those 500 rolls we can predict that the average is going to be, if memory serves, about a 3.5. Now, try to predict what the 1d6 will come up with on the first roll. Or the sixth. Or roll 384. Your accuracy on that is going to be pretty pitiful.

This is the law of large numbers (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers). In any situation with randomness, the more trials you have, the more the end result will approach the average. Climate is that 3.5 you come up with after 500 1d6 rolls. Weather is that single roll.

Climate is much easier to predict than weather. You also have a memory flaw--I guarantee you remember that one time when a foot of snow was predicted and it was actually 60 and sunny more than the 200 times the weather ended up being just about what was expected. Weather prediction is actually fairly good, though still, much more difficult than climate prediction.

Further basic reading:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate

[sgould72]

If liberals are about freedom, why are they so determined to restrict it with people who do not agree with them?

I don't know. For the same reason conservatives who are about small government not imposing on individuals are determined to tell me who to stick my d*ck in behind a closed door? Or my wife what she can or can't do with her own innards?

Oh, wait. Now I do remember why. Because while I am more than happy to let you perform any stupid sh*t you want so long as you are the only one that pays the consequences, the foot comes down when your stupid sh*t hurts me, my children, and everyone else whose freedom you deny when you make selfish decisions.

[Zakharra]

It is the same.

No, it's not. Let me try to explain it using a D&D analogy, I presume you're probably better versed in that.

Say we're going to roll a 1d6 five hundred times. Over those 500 rolls we can predict that the average is going to be, if memory serves, about a 3.5. Now, try to predict what the 1d6 will come up with on the first roll. Or the sixth. Or roll 384. Your accuracy on that is going to be pretty pitiful.

This is the law of large numbers (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers). In any situation with randomness, the more trials you have, the more the end result will approach the average. Climate is that 3.5 you come up with after 500 1d6 rolls. Weather is that single roll.

Climate is much easier to predict than weather. You also have a memory flaw--I guarantee you remember that one time when a foot of snow was predicted and it was actually 60 and sunny more than the 200 times the weather ended up being just about what was expected. Weather prediction is actually fairly good, though still, much more difficult than climate prediction.

Further basic reading:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate

Your example is flawed in one respect. In rolling the 1d6, you know what kidn of surface you have to roll on, how high you will roll the dice and how fast or slow you will roll it. In short, you know all of or can control to a great extent, the variables.

We do not know all of the variables of the climate, not even half a year from now. Last year there were predictions of a disastorious hurricane season, with about 17 named Cat 3 storms that where to pound the Us Gulf and Eastern coasts. What happened? They revised it at least three times downwards and there ended up maybe 7 storms. Several which ran over Mexico instead and did some damage to the US East coast.

Part of the climate change predictions are weather patterns. One or three day forcasts are fairly accurate. The closer it is, the more accurate it is, yet given over a week's time. It's at the best, a guess. Sometimes accurate, other times not. What will the winter be like this year? The climate? A large part of the climate change predictions is weather patterns.

[Zakharra]

If liberals are about freedom, why are they so determined to restrict it with people who do not agree with them?

I don't know. For the same reason conservatives who are about small government not imposing on individuals are determined to tell me who to stick my d*ck in behind a closed door? Or my wife what she can or can't do with her own innards?

Oh, wait. Now I do remember why. Because while I am more than happy to let you perform any stupid sh*t you want so long as you are the only one that pays the consequences, the foot comes down when your stupid sh*t hurts me, my children, and everyone else whose freedom you deny when you make selfish decisions.

tohse are the annoying conservatives. I'm perfectly willing to live and let live. Do what you want in the bedroom as long as it's with consenting adults. I'd have no problems with you selling your organs. Since men can sell semen and women their eggs, why not organs too? I'm all for freedoms, not restrictions.

[Grand Fromage]

Please never vote.

[Zakharra]

Please never vote.

Yes, I have voted and will vote in the future.

[Zakharra]

I talked to GF in chat and I think we came to a amiable agreement on some things. I'm willing to be persuaded if I can be convinced of the accuracy of the data, so keep on showing reliable sources to me.