The End is Nigh: WHO confirms human-to-human birdflu case

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Zakharra
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Post by Zakharra »

Cassiel wrote:Typically in the developing world the reverse of what you suggest is true - mortality and morbidity rates for everything are under-reported because people don't know or are unable to notify the relevant authorities. HIV rates in subsaharan Africa, maternal mortality in India, you name it and on the ground it's higher than it is.

Also, I believe with bird flu there have been pretty extensive contact-tracing efforts to avoid precisely this sort of under-reporting. So I'd guess those numbers are pretty accurate - certainly if you bootstrap them I'd suggest they'd still be pretty dramatic.
True to a point. Even in places like Darfur, which there is violent death from rampaging gunmen, word gets out about deaths happening. In many other places, atrocities happen and word get''s out. Diseases are reported such as eboli outbreaks. that disease kills within mere hours, yet we still heard when there are outbreaks.

All I am saying is that the WHO knows only about 343 cases. that is all that they caught. How many did they miss? They cannot say that they caught all of them. Out of every disease, how many people who catch it do not get sick enough to go to the hospital? Or even need to? I'm discounting diseases like HIV/AIDS and ones like that, which are fatal if not treated. The flu generally isn't

Even on the bird flu is a relation to the flu pandemic of 1918, how many people who caught that one died? Many died who got it, but how many more did not die? All I am asking is for people to not panic and please think about it. The media reported what they want to report. 'If it bleeds, it leads' is a common theme with them. They report what gets them ratings, not neccessarily the truth.
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Post by Mulu »

Zakharra wrote: Even on the bird flu is a relation to the flu pandemic of 1918, how many people who caught that one died?
Here's some wiki, which you are still apparently allergic to looking up yourself:
The global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 pandemic is not known, but is estimated at 2.5 to 5% of the human population, with 20% or more of the world population suffering from the disease to some extent. Influenza may have killed as many as 25 million in its first 25 weeks (in contrast, AIDS killed 25 million in its first 25 years). Older estimates say it killed 40–50 million people[5] while current estimates say 50 million to 100 million people worldwide were killed.[6] This pandemic has been described as "the greatest medical holocaust in history" and may have killed as many people as the Black Death.[7]

An estimated 7 million died in India, about 2.78% of India's population at the time. In the Indian Army, almost 22% of troops who caught the disease died of it[citation needed]. In the U.S., about 28% of the population suffered, and 500,000 to 675,000 died. In Britain as many as 250,000 died; in France more than 400,000. In Canada approximately 50,000 died. Entire villages perished in Alaska and southern Africa. In Australia an estimated 12,000 people died and in the Fiji Islands, 14% of the population died during only two weeks, and in Western Samoa 22%.

This huge death toll was caused by an extremely high infection rate of up to 50% and the extreme severity of the symptoms, suspected to be caused by cytokine storms.[5] Indeed, symptoms in 1918 were so unusual that initially influenza was misdiagnosed as dengue, cholera, or typhoid. One observer wrote, "One of the most striking of the complications was hemorrhage from mucous membranes, especially from the nose, stomach, and intestine. Bleeding from the ears and petechial hemorrhages in the skin also occurred."[6] The majority of deaths were from bacterial pneumonia, a secondary infection caused by influenza, but the virus also killed people directly, causing massive hemorrhages and edema in the lung.[4]

The unusually severe disease killed between 2 and 20% of those infected, as opposed to the more usual flu epidemic mortality rate of 0.1%.[4][6] Another unusual feature of this pandemic was that it mostly killed young adults, with 99% of pandemic influenza deaths occurring in people under 65, and more than half in young adults 20 to 40 years old.[8] This is unusual since influenza is normally most deadly to the very young (under age 2) and the very old (over age 70).
The influenza strain was unusual in that this pandemic killed many young adults and otherwise healthy victims — typical influenzas kill mostly infants (aged 0-2 years), the old, and the immunocompromised. Another oddity was that this influenza outbreak struck hardest in summer and fall (in the Northern Hemisphere). Typically, influenza is worse in the winter months.

People without symptoms could be struck suddenly and within hours be too feeble to walk; many died the next day. Symptoms included a blue tint to the face and coughing up blood caused by severe obstruction of the lungs. In some cases, the virus caused an uncontrollable hemorrhaging that filled the lungs, and patients drowned in their body fluids. In still others, the flu caused an uncontrollable loss of bowel functions and the victim would die from losing critical intestinal lining.

In fast-progressing cases, mortality was primarily from pneumonia, by virus-induced consolidation. Slower-progressing cases featured secondary bacterial pneumonias, and there may have been neural involvement that led to mental disorders in a minority of cases. Some deaths resulted from malnourishment and even animal attacks in overwhelmed communities.
One theory is that the virus strain originated at Fort Riley, Kansas, by two genetic mechanisms — genetic drift and antigenic shift — in viruses in poultry and swine which the fort bred for local consumption. But evidence from a recent reconstruction of the virus suggests that it jumped directly from birds to humans, without traveling through swine.[11] On October 5, 2005, researchers announced that the genetic sequence of the 1918 flu strain, a subtype of avian strain H1N1, had been reconstructed using historic tissue samples.[12][13][14] On 18 January 2007, Kobasa et al reported that infected monkeys (Macaca fascicularis) exhibited classic symptoms of the 1918 pandemic and died from a cytokine storm.[15]
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Post by JaydeMoon »

One can only hope.
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Its the end of the world as we know it and I feel like a drink. Remember Y2K and SARS? Shit, we're going to hell in a handbasket my friends. You all will be missed. :(
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Post by Zakharra »

Mulu, I'm not disputing the fact that the bird flu could be more lethal than the normal flu. What I am arguing is that it is not the 2/3(66%) lethality that some people are saying/ The WHO report is of reported cases. They missed some. Unless you can say that they got every single case of bird flu out there.

Don't panic over this yet. Sheesh.. Until/unless it happens, all we can do is guess.
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Post by Zakharra »

Excepting those that want to have the human race die off.*

*not including anyone in ALFA in the generalization*
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Post by Mulu »

Well, I for one was never worried about Y2K or SARS. And Zak, of course they haven't recorded every single case. But that means they haven't recorded every single death either. The cases they do have form a sampling of the total, and that sampling shows a roughly 61% mortality rate. Whether the sampling is truly representative or not of course can't be known.

Now, for it to jump completely to an airborne human virus, it has to mutate, and the version that ultimately bridges that gap may be less lethal. Then again, it may be more. All I know is when it does start to spread, my family is staying home.
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Post by Zakharra »

*nod nod* If it does jump to human to human transfer, unless it's jumped on immediately, I can easily see a world wide pandemic in a few weeks. and a great deal of panic. Airplanes make travel far to easy.

If it happens, I hope you and your family are safe, Mulu. As is everyone's.

Goddess bless thee.
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Post by Nekulor »

Depends on the form of transmission. Contact transmission can be managed with mass quarantine. If we get airborne transmission, we're fucked.
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Post by Zakharra »

Nekulor wrote:Depends on the form of transmission. Contact transmission can be managed with mass quarantine. If we get airborne transmission, we're f*cked.
That'd be nice. If it's like the normal flu in transmission, then we are screwed already. When you have the flu, you are contagious before symptoms pop up. Touch and airborne is the normal transmission methods.
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Post by Nekulor »

Bird flu isn't normal influenza though, its another branch of the evolutionary tree with very different transmission methods and it acts differently on the host. Its like a distant cousin of the normal flu. However, in birds it has shown very effective airborne transmission. That is the problem.
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Post by HATEFACE »

Actually, this video shows the lethality and the spread of bird flu and at the rates listed it is a potential pandemic
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Post by Rotku »

Helios wrote:Its the end of the world as we know it and I feel like a drink. Remember Y2K and SARS? sh*t, we're going to hell in a handbasket my friends. You all will be missed. :(
Media hype. I remember seeing images and graphs in the paper when the birdflu thing first came about (what was it, 1 year ago? 2?), how we were all going to die terrible deaths from this impending doom.
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Helios wrote:Actually, this video shows the lethality and the spread of bird flu and at the rates listed it is a potential pandemic
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Post by ElCadaver »

Zakharra wrote:Considering that AIDS came from animals (monkeys/chimps), and where the flu virus comes from, I'm not really concerned. The deaths attributed to the bird flu is not that high, when you look at the number of people who must have gotten the disease and NOT died, or gotten a little sick or hardly sick at all. The normal flu kills about 30k a year in the US anyways.

Unless the bird flu has a proven high mortality rate from a percentage of the people who get it, then it is nothing to really worry about. It's a case of the media blowing things out of proportion, as usual.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm
CDC wrote:The “low pathogenic” form may go undetected and usually causes only mild symptoms (such as ruffled feathers and a drop in egg production). However, the highly pathogenic form spreads more rapidly through flocks of poultry. This form may cause disease that affects multiple internal organs and has a mortality rate that can reach 90-100% often within 48 hours.
Thats in Birds. If the flu kills 30K a year in USA, how many people HAD the flu and got over it? If Bird Flu mutates to airbourne transmission in humans how many do you think that will kill eh?
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